Counting down the Blues: What can Jake Neighbours do for an encore? (2024)

Editor’s note: This is the first of 10 installments counting down the big questions facing the Blues entering the 2024-25 season.

10. What can Jake Neighbours do for an encore?

A year ago, the expectations were that Jake Neighbours could battle his way onto the Blues roster again after spending the previous season split between St. Louis and AHL affiliate Springfield.

Well, it’s safe to say he exceeded those expectations.

After starting the regular season on the fourth line, Neighbours submitted the best season of his career by scoring 27 goals. In the process, Neighbours elevated himself in the lineup to become a top-six forward. He became integral on the power play at the net front. He cemented himself as the first part of the Blues’ youth movement to arrive and contribute in the NHL.

This season, the expectations around Neighbours have soared given his production last season.

He’s penciled in the team’s top-six as an impact forward that could be playing on a line with Robert Thomas or Jordan Kyrou. No longer is he viewed as an effort player who could contribute offensively from time to time. Now, he’s an effort player with a 27-goal season under his belt that will receive top-unit power play time.

Neighbours’ 27-goal season wasn’t a normal one, though.

Almost a third of his goals (8) came on the power play. He shot an abnormal 18.6% on his shots on goal, well above the league average 10.2%. According to MoneyPuck, Neighbours scored 4.3 more goals than expected when accounting for shot quality. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Blues possessed the puck less with Neighbours on the ice, with a lower share of shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances and expected goals.

Historically, outside of top-end snipers, shooting percentage can vary from season to season, meaning a regression for Neighbours is possible even if he generates similar chances as last year. For example, Kyrou shot 13.6% when he scored a career-high 37 goals in 2022-23, but that dipped to 12.4% last year when he scored 31.

The Blues themselves are curious about how Neighbours’ season progresses given his status as a restricted free agent next summer.

This summer, general manager Doug Armstrong could have signed Neighbours to a contract extension beginning on July 1, but the Blues opted not to do so.

“He’s been a pro, a regular pro, for one year,” Armstrong said in July. “I don’t think that there’s any necessity to jump the shark.”

Of course, there is the possibility Neighbours makes the Blues pay with a repeat season.

He was among the most regular forwards in high-danger areas with 79 shots on goal (94th percentile) and 20 goals (96th percentile), according to NHL Edge data. So it’s no surprise his shooting percentage was high because of the positions that he put himself in.

Sometimes, players that make a living around the net-front maintain their above-average shooting percentages, even if they aren’t in the high-teens.

Rangers forward Chris Kreider has a 15.1% shooting percentage across his 12-year career and that included two seasons above 19%. While Sam Reinhart poured in 57 goals for Florida last year thanks to a 24.5% shooting percentage, his career mark is 15.6%, which also included two seasons above 19%.

When Edmonton’s Zach Hyman shot 18.6% last season on his way to 54 goals, it was the second time in his career that he reached that figure. Net-front mainstay Joe Pavelski had three seasons over 18% during his lengthy career.

If Neighbours can replicate (or come close to) his production from last season, it would be another win for the Blues’ amateur scouting staff, who have assembled a young group of talent that is being counted on to transition the franchise towards another core.